ViewPoint
April 4, 2005
Written by MadAlan

Deeper Inside the Tigers, Marlins and Astros

Detroit Tigers
Detroit must need to pause with the Tigers this year. They may move up a little to .500 and at the worst, it means a game or two below that. Manager Alan Trammell will have more talent to work with than he's had the last two years, and Detroit is hosting the All-Star game. But the rest of the division is still very reachable, it will depend upon the Cleveland Indian pitching. They have the rest to win. This division is snug, and a surprise would not be any surprise. The Tiger’s can win this with 88 victories. The Tigers do continue to head in the right direction since losing 119 games in 2003. 29 Wins was what the Tigers improved by last season, they moved from 43 wins in 2003 to 72 and out of last place.

Detroit did pick-up Troy Percival from the Angel’s out West, an addition that will elevate Detroit to the more elite class of closers; but he has been injured each of the past 3-years. Magglio Ordonez the other grand signing is, no matter what they say, merely a line-drive gap-hitter with a batting average near the .290 mark. He is a provider in rallies, hits in the clutch seemingly all of the time and keeps everyone alert. He has not stolen many bases in years and he has not been a true power source in a while also. Ordonez cannot be intimidated by anyone and will reach 90 RBIs but he will make a better player out of Carlos Pena.

Carlos plays first base and his power blasts are expected. Pena is a very good fielder, who still could not help reduce 3B Eric Munson throws, and Munson is gone. Pena will hit 35-40 home runs and crack 125 RBIs. As he reduces the strikeouts, yes he will cut them down this year, he will increase his batting average into the high .280s. A SLEEPER once again.

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Carlos Guillen became a power-hitting RBI source in one of the larger ballparks in the AL. As bizarre as that sounds speaks volumes about any reoccurrence. Having lived in Seattle when he played there I can readily admit to his great ability to be a clutch hitter with or without 2 strikes. Guillen plays the game the way it should be played but without the range.

Brandon Inge became a very good catcher in the minors, came up and played better than expected and followed that up with 2 even better seasons and two more position changes. So far the glove collection is a catcher mitt, a third base glove and a center fielders glove. The bat is Ok with a .285 or so BA but that is all the offense he does give you. Avoid him.

Ivan Rodriguez does the job offensively and defensively, and remains an All-Star caliber catcher. He's Hall of Fame material having been the cream of the crop among AL catchers for 13 years. As he ages he reduced the early swings and develop a better hitters count at the plate, he hits the pitches he forces a pitcher to throw. Hence I-Rod is now a .320 hitter. He plays as if this is his prime, great player to own.

The Magglio Ordonez left knee is an issue, especially with the money they've invested in him. If he's healthy, he'll be a very good addition as a right-handed bat. If he's not healthy, he was a risky signing at five years and $75 million when others were reluctant to give him more than a couple years. Rondell White will play left … but this will be it for him as a regular everyday producer and his ‘end’ will be apparent to most. At his best the Tigers would expect about 60 RBIs now and 20 homers too. I believe those numbers are too high. Who will play center? Alex Sanchez's release leaves the Tigers choosing between slugger Craig Monroe and speedy Nook Logan. The choice will have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. If Monroe nails down the position, the leadoff job will be open, with no clear-cut candidate. The big question is whether Monroe, who hit .293 with 72 RBI last season, will be able to actually play a vast center field such as the Tiger playground is. At present Monroe is slated in center with Nook on the bench. Monroe will soon move over to left, sending White to the bench and Nook out in center where the puzzle pieces fit the most clearly.

The offense will be tougher against lefthanders than it has been in several years. Having right fielder Magglio Ordonez in the cleanup spot, with shortstop Carlos Guillen, catcher Ivan Rodriguez and designated hitter Dmitri Young around him, continues the transition from a lefty-heavy batting order to a balanced one. By holding the line on an 11-man pitching staff, manager Alan Trammell will have a deeper bench.

The starting rotation will continue to gain experience this year with Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth the two better known Tiger pitchers. Can right-hander Jason Johnson step up as staff ‘Ace?’ Though team officials rave about Johnson's stuff, he struggled must of last season because of blisters and late-season sluggishness. He believes he has both problems solved, but he must string together quality starts for the Tigers to contend. If he pulls his weight and develops into a No. 3-4 it would be fine too because that alone could be enough to put the Tiger’s in the Twins league and contention. Johnson must reverse last year from 8-15 to 15-8 or he will become No. 5 in the rotation before he can spell Ledezema.

He’s another very good-looking ‘kid’ pitcher, Wilfredo Ledezma. He was shutdown twice last year. Both times he was shutdown because management was afraid to allow him to pitch too many innings. In the minors he could strikeout everybody, in the Tiger rotation he did not strikeout many batters. Either way he also rarely will walk a batter. I have seen him hit in the low-90s. Ledezma looks like a future Ace, pitching a shutout over 7 innings in his last spring start against the New York Yankees. I figure it will take him about 5 starts before the Tigers move him up to the two-spot.

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The real Ace of the Tiger staff as well as their best pitcher as of now is Jeremy Bonderman. Coaches and front office officials everywhere believe Bonderman will be an elite player a year from now. It could be now. How quickly he develops could depend on his ability to throw a consistently effective changeup. Two years of hard knocks have taught him how to spot flaws in his delivery and correct them during a game. He is coach-able and smart on the mound; he is among the youngest players in the majors.

They also retain Nate Robertson who showed his ability to learn last year. In the early 2004 season Nate was among the AL better starters as well as among the leaders in strikeouts. By the All-Star break his pitching had been modified from a fastball thrower to a 4-pitch arsenal pitcher who will set-up hitters thereby using less pitches and bringing his ERA above 5.79. The starters will be trying to get the ball to the closers. Robertson is a better than average No. 3 in most any rotation.

This bullpen will throw harder and be more experienced and generally stronger than the group that blew 28 saves last season. Though closer Troy Percival is the big name on the staff, the biggest improvement will be seen in the seventh and eighth innings. Right-handers Ugueth Urbina, Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney will provide a big step up in the setup roles. Though the numbers point dramatically that all Tiger pitchers seem to discontinue using the strikeout upon hitting the pitching staff, they must be being coached that way. Be aware of Percival, who has landed on the D.L. four times in the past three years and might not get as many save chances in Detroit.

Forecast: Second in their division.

Florida Marlins
The Marlins' offense could be the best in the division, or the National League for that matter. The addition of Carlos Delgado could be the biggest off-season acquisition of any team. He joins an offense that has speed at the top of the order in Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo, and other consistent bats around him with Miguel Cabrera and Mike Lowell. This is a wonderful lineup from top to bottom. There's really nice punch in the 6-7-8 spots with Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez.

Breakout player? As a Gold Glove-caliber defensive player who's in the final year of his contract, Gonzalez stands to benefit from the Marlins' improved lineup. In the No. 8 spot, he should bat with more runners on base. Last year he led N.L. shortstops in home runs and RBIs but had a disappointing on-base percentage. If Gonzalez shows patience at the plate, he could rack up impressive numbers.

I love this Fantasy Baseball Web-site too. http://www.letsplay2.com/baseball/

The Marlins finally added a big left-handed bat, signing 1B Carlos Delgado to a team-record four-year, $52 million contract. His presence should lift a versatile lineup to new heights. CF Juan Pierre and 2B Luis Castillo provide speed at the top of the order. LF Miguel Cabrera is one of the game's best up-and-coming players, and 3B Mike Lowell likely will prosper batting behind Delgado.

Carlos Delgado is one of the top-10 fastball hitters in baseball and is going to face plenty of them in the NL. Much more often than normal he will clobber the NL pitchers enough to earn the MVP. It is in Delgado’s mind exclusively that he has something to prove versus last season. He thinks he had a bad season, look at his numbers please. You will not need me for this. Delgado could muscle 45 homers and 135 RBIs packaged in a NL leading .340 batting average.

A number of pieces are in place for the Marlins to make a serious playoff run. Not even the 2003 World Series-winning team boasted the kind of firepower this club has. The offense has improved mostly because of the addition of first baseman Delgado, who will bat cleanup. Left fielder Cabrera remains one of the game's brightest young stars, and third baseman Lowell is a proven run producer. Complementing that powerful middle-of-the-lineup trio is speed at the top of the order, in center fielder Juan Pierre and second baseman Luis Castillo.

Who's in right? Signs point to Juan Encarnacion being the opening day right fielder because Jeff Conine must recover from two off-season shoulder surgeries. Encarnacion is better defensively than Conine, but he also is coming off of a shoulder injury and needs to produce solid numbers to fend off Conine. Personally I am amazed at the many foolish mental errors that I am witness to from Juan Encarnacion.

It would be a positive sign when Jeff Conine becomes a bench player, he has overachieved every year and he’s getting much slower .. er, older. He is not a 500 at-bat player hopefully for the Marlins.

Castillo hits high in the order and the current version no longer will be caught stealing in double-digits nor will he steal more than 25 bases. The fact that he will work the pitcher, is not afraid to force a walk and is as smart going from first to third as anyone in the game. Obviously he scores plenty of runs each year.

Lowell was once the darling of the Yankee minor leagues and now produces more than 35 double plays each season and rarely makes an error other than from attempting a valiant effort to catch the ball. I tell you this because he spent time as a Yankee farmhand who they would not let go; he is loved by all pitchers and never leaves a game unless sorely sore. Given he will reach near 500 at-bats with enough runners who get on base in front of him expect Lowell to send home 110 or more this year and maybe the only time he will in his career.

Juan Pierre will hit lead-off, hit 235 line drives for hits and prove last season was no fluke be duplicating it including an additional few stolen bases bringing it to 55 this year. Simply put Pierre is one of the top-50 players in baseball today, a sure thing for more than 200 hits each year. What a wonderful time for baseball fans to see a Michael Young, Ichiro and Pierre all gathering 200 hits or more each season. I love baseball.

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Quick, someone name any catcher for the Marlins! Paul Lo Duca is the answer; try to remember on draft day because he will be well known in 4 months.

Mr. Miguel Cabrera is a 22-year old outfielder coming off his sophomore season where he collected 33-home runs, 112 RBIs, 101 runs and he stole 5 bases .. that will never happen again for him. All other numbers shall improve again, a true 4-category super stud for the next 12 years or so.

The rotation is solid. Lefthander Al Leiter, a free-agent pickup, adds experience and knowledge to an assembly that hasn't had a veteran of his caliber to experience from. Lefthander Dontrelle Willis has the makings of a star but must show consistency in his delivery and most importantly he must be coached on winning. Being a nice pitcher, avoiding the inside and pitching a nice game – losing the game is not being a success. If Leiter does help anywhere this is the most important step for a pitcher such as Willis because Leiter knows how to win games, even during a bad day.

Leiter is a proven winner. Leiter was a member of Florida's 1997 championship team and was brought in to stabilize a young rotation that includes hard-throwing Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, 2003 Rookie of the Year Dontrelle Willis and veteran Ismael Valdez.

Said Leiter, “They’re not just decent pitchers they could all be Cy Young Award guys.” Beckett, Burnett and Willis could all classify as underachievers in some peoples minds. If the club is going to compete for a playoff spot, Beckett and Burnett need to be healthy. Neither has reached 30 starts in a season yet. Willis and Leiter give the rotation exceptional depth. I would wager the Yankee’s would grab any two of them right now, Beckett, Burnett and Willis, if they could.

It's hard to overlook Burnett's strikeout potential -- he had 113 strikeouts in 120 innings last year. Two years removed from elbow surgery, he could be a dominant starter. The most starts A.J. Burnett has made in a season are 29, which came in 2002, when he pitched in 31 games. He's hoping to flourish two years after having elbow ligament surgery.

Let me tell you about Scott Olsen, a lefty that can rear-back and fire 95 MPH bullets plus he has a power sinker in his rich arsenal – all with pin-point accuracy. When he enters the rotation he will not leave until retirement. The starting pitching must come through because this team will score runs, but it is the bullpen will determine whether they can win the division or not.

How far the Marlins go could depend on right-hander Guillermo Mota. The past two years, Mota was stellar as a setup reliever, and now he must show he has what it takes to be a top-notch closer. He certainly has the arm. He has me sold this dude is fearless.

The Marlins loaded up on veteran relievers with the signings of Antonio Alfonseca, Todd Jones, Jim Mecir and John Riedling. With Armando Benitez gone, keep an eye on Tim Spooneybarger. After missing all of 2004 recovering from Tommy John elbow ligament surgery, the right-hander could be a key bullpen asset because he came up late and knows how to set up hitters now.

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Forecast: They have the talent to reach the World Series, if healthy; behind the regulars is little depth of significance.

Houston Astros
Once Phil Garner became the bench manager the team, a team similar to his approach to the game, as he and they took off together, to a 48-26 finish. People swarmed to the stadium to see the “Wonder-Astros” to a financial tune of 3 million fans, games were now big events. They fell one win short of going to the World Series for the first time in team history, last fall, LF Craig Biggio and 1B Jeff Bagwell are back. Other key returning players include SS Adam Everett, 3B Morgan Ensberg and C Brad Ausmus.

And the incredible Roger Clemens returns, he who won another Cy Young Award for a 7th time. To counter the wonderful season, in October, Lance Berkman tore up his knee playing a game of touch football that will keep him from anything to accomplish this season. They claim he will return in late May, but will need plenty of time to get back to being a Major League outfielder once more, so lets say he becomes Berkman quality in early July meaning he lost 4 months. Yikes.

The team isn't certain what it will get from the inexperienced players who could wind up on the opening day roster. This team is going to push the defenses into errors by taking the extra bases, stealing and forcing the extra throws to create errors. Without any new heavy bats to replace the loss of Beltran and Kent and now the Berkman medical wait, this team is reliant on Biggio and the “aging quicker than Biggio” first baseman Jeff Bagwell for about 95% of the power. Yikes. Neither of the youngsters Taveras or Lane hit for power.

Ausmus saw his career as a starter end, he knows not at the moment. Enter and welcome Hector Gimenez as the new catcher and a good one he is. He cannot lead this pitching staff; nor could Ausmus, instead if he is to be an All-Star sooner, listening to them is the thing. What better teachers than Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt – all teaching a young catcher what they like called when. Gimenez only hit .245 and played in 97 games in AA but he did seem to be one of those special players that opportunity seeks to win, and he knows how to respond. Last year in 97 games he scored 38 runs and sent home another 45 to total almost one score accounted-for in every game he is in. He may never hit for a high average or hit 12 homers either but he will drive in runners and steal the occasional base. Golden opportunity here.

Second baseman Chris Burke, 25, will play because he is talented, smart and a good listener. He can be pitched to and he can be over-powered by better pitchers. During his short stay in the majors he looked bad, the pitchers he bashed in the minors were getting him out now. His inadequacies might bring Biggio back to second again in his career. Biggio, 39, still can get the job done; he set a career high with 24 home runs last season. This year, he might play some second base and become eligible at two positions. On the other hand he did drive 16 homers and hit .315 in AAA. His compact swing and very, very good plate discipline while stealing 37 bases once on first.

Everett is still attempting to get thru one season in the majors without an injury sidelining him for an extended time. He averages less than one RBI for every 10 at-bats in his short career. His range is average and his arm is strong but he best keep an eye to his back and on anyone catching up. At third is Ensberg, avoid him, please. Behind Ensberg is the poor fielding Mike Lamb and his fine hitting. If it seems he will play he is a great hitter to pick up before others see his name among starters at third or second. Given 450 at-bats he will reward owners with 25 homers and 100 RBIs.

Carlos Beltran's departure has to be considered a big loss. The Astros will not only miss his bat at the top of the lineup but also his overall five-tool play. They'll also have to replace Jeff Kent's offense. Competition abounds in camp with the biggest questions contain the outfield. Top CF prospect Willy Taveras and Barry Wesson will get close looks. Forget Wesson and remember Luke Scott. Luke Scott has powered out 7 homers this spring and will start in left to begin the year, Taveras next to him and Lane in right.

Outfielder Taveras, 23, has to prove he can hit major league pitching. Ideally, he'd begin the season at Class AAA, but a shortage of outfielders on the big-league roster will prevent that. One day before the season begins he is listed as the starting outfielder for Houston. The minors cupboard is now bare of outfielders too.

Lane long has been considered the club's top outfield prospect, and he has produced in limited major league opportunities. The club's depth at the position in the past prevented him from becoming an everyday player they say, I say they had better players playing in front of him. One thing he has shown in 3 years is the ability to collect the key hit or the key at-bat then make good. Lane likely will remain a starter even if the club acquires an outfielder.

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The offense should be good enough for the Astros to compete at the top of the division, but there are question marks with the rest of the starting rotation. Clemens and Oswalt will have to lead the way. Roger Clemens agreed to an $18 million deal to pitch one more season. Along with 20-game winner Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte recovering from elbow surgery, the rotation has a trio of aces. Oswalt was the NL's only 20-game winner. Pettitte is coming back so you don't know what to expect from him but he was not a factor last year. Oswalt, Pettitte and Clemens are the stellar trio in the starting rotation and NL. Brandon Backe pitched well late last season. Backe is an up-and-coming starter but Ezequiel Astacio is much better.

With the fifth starter's spot still up for grabs and with a lot less offense in the lineup after the free-agent departures the top of the rotation must carry an even greater load. Expect more low-scoring games this season because the club will have to rely more on its pitching.

Right-hander Ezequiel Astacio, who could be the fifth starter, has not pitched above Class AA and would be better served beginning the year in the minors. Astacio's competition includes lefthander Carlos Hernandez and right-handers Tim Redding and Brandon Duckworth. The latter two are out of minor league options. RH

Aside from Lidge, the bullpen is suspect. Veteran LHP John Franco, signed as a free agent after spending the last 14 seasons with the Mets; he could be a teacher for the young arms vying for bullpen jobs – I say he should have been allowed to retire and let the pitching coach teach pitching. There are no bullpen pitchers you should know about at all, just stay away from all other than Lidge.

Forecast: The Astros are fortunate the teams behind them in their division are too weak to replace them .. or can enough of the Cincinnati kids stay healthy, once, together and win the whole thing.

MadAlan

Opinions are welcome.

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