ViewPoint
March 21, 2005
Written by MadAlan

Angels
Not until Arte Moreno entered the Angel future, the Angel’s are now a ‘player’ for every prominent and important free agent. This pricey array of talent includes a few players who will be among the most expensive at their positions in Fantasy auctions this spring reigning AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero, fellow outfielder Garret Anderson, and a dynamic new closer, Francisco Rodriguez. The real key is the Angel’s lost a ton of talent (Garret Anderson, Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus, Bengie Molina and others), yet they gained 15 wins over the prior season.

The Angel’s headlines were louder for the players that left, not for those that stayed. Forever Angel Troy Percival was told at the end of last season that if he wanted to return he would need to accept being the setup man to that dynamic Francisco Rodriguez guy. Rodriguez has held opposing batters to a .172 batting average, second best among all major league pitchers with at least 175 innings pitched. Number one is Eric Gagne. Third baseman Troy Glaus was the other notable free agent to depart, signing a four-year, $45-million contract with the Diamondbacks.

The fun-to-watch hustling infielder David Eckstein has left, his place at shortstop will be taken by Orlando Cabrera, who inked a four-year, $32-million contract. Cabrera is not necessarily better than Eckstein, but he does cost allot more and is not going to draw the fans applause as Eckstein once did. Veteran right-hander Paul Byrd was signed and is expected to be the fifth starter. This was an above-average move, quiet, subtle and a sure way to earn 15 wins. When able to pitch, Byrd wins games.

Byrd will be an interesting hurler to watch. He had a career year in 2002, but then hurt his elbow and wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery and missed the 2003 season. In 19 starts for the Braves last year, he won eight times. This winter he says he feels better than ever. Pitching every five days in front of a very good defense and with great run support could translate into a lot of success in his return to the Junior Circuit. Give Byrd 33 starts and he will give you 17 wins. He has done that before. He has been injured in every year in Majors except one and he has been here since 1995. If healthy he will win many games no matter who he pitches for, he can be that good. But first, he has to throw well in spring training and solidify his spot in the rotation.

Esteban Yan was also brought in via free agency and will be fighting for a roster location as one of several powerful arms setting up K-Rod in the pen. Yan can start, set-up, close and lose games in so many ways. No place for him in this bullpen of All-Stars. The other free agent addition is outfielder Steve Finley, who will turn 40 in March but is coming off one of his best seasons out of 20. He will man centerfield between Anderson and Guerrero. Finley in the outfield is as good as anyone in baseball. Finley at bat in an important RBI situation is as good as anyone in baseball. Keep in mind he must come to a halt, soon, after all he is over 40 now.

Outfielder Jose Guillen, who was suspended by the team toward the end of last season, was traded to the Nationals for outfielder Juan Rivera and infielder Maicer Izturis. Disgruntled pitcher Ramon Ortiz was sent to the Reds for minor league pitcher Dustin Moseley. To make room on the 40-man roster for Moseley, utility infielder Alfredo Amezaga was designated for assignment. Bobby Jenks, an up-and-down top-pitching prospect, was designated for assignment when the team signed Cuban defector Kendry Morales to a six-year, $10-million contract. Both Amezaga and Jenks were claimed off waivers by other teams within two days.

The Angels pushed-out Percival, Eckstein and allowed Glaus to go because they already knew they owned younger, comparable, much healthier, and less expensive replacements. Rodriguez will be the Angels' new closer. K-Rod, 23 last week, has flashed his arsenal of pitches for two years and he has shown enough to be ranked among the top-three closers in the American League. If the Angel’s win 95 games he could save 60 of them.

As you might expect from a team that spends the kind of money the Angels do, they have their lineup, rotation, and bullpen pretty well set. The simply incredible bullpen cannot be under-considered - they will and do shut down all lineups for 3 years in a row now and they possess three relief pitchers that may even be draft material. Rare for any relief pitcher other than the closer. All an Angel starter need do is go 6 innings and then sit, because the ‘pen’ will do it all.

The departure of Glaus opens up a starting spot at third base—presumably for stud prospect Dallas McPherson, a strapping slugger who fits the ideal power-hitting third baseman mold. D-Mac was the 2004 Minor League Player of the Year, but before handing him the job on a silver platter, manager Mike Scioscia wants to see what he does in spring training. The Angels have others who can also play third, most notably Robb Quinlan and Chone Figgins, and lets not forget about Kendry Morales. Morales is such a sure thing that he will certainly demand an every day position no later than next year if not before. So, this position will be vulnerable for other players until his place becomes settled.

Figgins should open the season at second base with Kendry Morales and Robb Quinlan at designated hitter along with Juan Rivera, Jeff DaVanon, and Tim Salmon. Fourth outfielder? Again, we're talking Rivera, Morales, DaVanon, and Figgins. When regular second baseman Adam Kennedy returns from knee surgery in June, his comeback could push Figgins back into a utility role at second, third, outfield, and shortstop. Figgins is worth a lofty pick because he plays every day, someplace, plus hits lead off every day too. This year he could steal 50 bases and slap 20 homers around the various smaller parks.

Casey Kotchman 1B has nothing left to learn in any minor league, please pause here to look at his .428 on-base-percent. Kotchman’s fluid lefty swing draws many to compare him to Will Clark and Todd Helton. The glove is “Gold” quality now.

Dallas McPherson 3B led the minors with 349 total bases and a .670 slugging percentage while hitting .317, with 40 homers and126 RBIs.

Kendry Morales 1B-OF is so gifted as an athlete he compares to that Cabrera guy in Florida. Morales, is a 21-year-old whom some have described as the best position player to come out of Cuba in decades. That's awfully high praise for a country so rich in baseball tradition.

They can play anywhere, just teach them what you want and leave them alone.

Forecast: World Champion

Atlanta Braves

The Braves overcame heavy losses to win their 13th-straight division title in 2004. The streak began in 1991 and spans 14 years, with the strike-shortened 1994 campaign tossed out. The Braves have not made it to the World Series since 1999. With that in mind, Bobby Cox's club made major tweaks to their pitching staff, but did they leave themselves with enough depth? And what are they going to do about their depleted outfield? They are doing a “soft-fall” call for evolution so as to never fall too far too fast. We will not see the Brave’s in the basement for a long, long time.

Despite the loss of Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux, Javy Lopez and Vinny Castilla, among others, they rolled to a record 13th straight division title. Now with the addition of a good closer in Danny Kolb it freed up an “ACE” for the rotation .. a rotation that includes Tim Hudson. They took advantage of the “Athletics' Arms Sale” to land Super All-Star Tim Hudson in what may well turn into a one year rental. That would be a cost higher than my computer will let me understand. To acquire the right-handed Hudson, they shipped reliever Juan Cruz, developing outfielder Charles Thomas, and minor-league, highly rated pitcher Dan Meyer. Over six seasons with the Athletics, the 29-year-old Hudson piled up 183 starts, a 92-39 record, and a 3.30 ERA. Considering that pitchers usually improve under the tutelage of Braves' pitching coach Leo Mazzone, it's scary to think of. The loss of Cruz will prove unfortunate; he will win 17 games for Oakland, which will be darn close to what Hudson will win. Charles Thomas was expected to be the replacement for Byrnes in the Oakland outfield, but Oakland was unable to get what they wanted for Byrnes, so Byrnes is also still in Oakland. Meyer is a promising future number two, maybe by next year, but figure he will win no less than 10 games for Oakland soon. They paid an enormous amount for Hudson.

A few days before the Hudson deal, the Braves sent yet another stud pitching prospect Jose Capellan and minor-league stud hurler Alex Zumwalt to the Brewers in exchange for All-Star closer Danny Kolb. The Kolb acquisition meant that, as rumored, the Braves would move closer John Smoltz back to a starting role. The Braves also made one more trade in December, sending outfielder Eli Marrero to the Royals for pitcher Jorge Vazquez. They also recently signed veteran left-handed reliever Gabe White to help out the bullpen. This pitcher Roman Colon, a 25-year old Latin pitcher is ready now to dominate hitters, too.

Starting pitchers Russ Ortiz (Diamondbacks), Jaret Wright (Yankees), and Paul Byrd (Angels) all left via free agency this time. That trio amassed 85 starts, 38 wins, and 505.1 innings in 2004. Relief pitcher Antonio Alfonseca also used free agency to leave the Braves and re-join the Florida Marlins. The Braves will use Mike Hampton and John Thomson to fill out the rotation. The ‘other’ starters include Horacio Ramirez and rookie Kyle Davies. Ramirez, for those who require reminding was having a career year last season before shutting down because of injuries. Ramirez missed much of 2004 with shoulder tendonitis and had arthroscopic surgery in October to clean out the joint and relieve the inflammation.

Smoltz has not been a full-time starter since the 1999 season. He underwent two elbow surgeries prior to the move to the bullpen and two more elbow operations since that time. Needless to say, we're interested to see if the move works for the former CY Young winner. He told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that people should expect "15 wins on up," and he believes he can log at least 220 innings. We won't have all our questions about his elbow answered until well into the regular season, but he'll be a hot topic this spring.

He's not the only starter with serious questions. Mike Hampton had off-season surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. John Thomson chose rest to overcome the oblique strain that sidelined him.

Along with Thomas and Marrero, the Braves' outfield also lost J.D. Drew and Dewayne Wise. In 2004, Drew led the club in homers (31) and runs (118), and he also hit .305 with 93 RBI and 12 steals. Chipper Jones has also left the Braves outfield for third base once more. If the Braves could write this they would extol the fancy outfield play they see coming from Ryan Langerhans and Jeff Francoeur THIS season. Both rookies exploding on the scene is a remote possibility. One being above average is a very good bet.

All eyes will be on outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhans. The 21-year-old Francoeur split time between Single-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Greenville in 2004. He then had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League. Despite his lack of experience, the Braves are giving Francoeur a chance to win a starting job this spring. The 24-year-old Langerhans was the club's Triple-A Player of the Year in 2004 after hitting .303 with 21 homers, 73 RBI, and 104 runs in 455 at-bats at Richmond. He'll also be in contention for a starting gig.

So how is it that both youngsters have a chance to start alongside Andruw Jones in center? By trading away Marrero and Thomas, letting Drew and Wise leave via free agency, and moving Chipper Jones to third, the Braves nearly erased their entire outfield corps. Rather than sign a notable free agent, the team has opted to see what they have in-house with Francoeur and Langerhans. Fellow minor-leaguers Kelly Johnson and Bill McCarthy have also been mentioned as possibilities. Third baseman Andy Marte, the team's top prospect, may be shagging some fly balls this spring and make the leap from Double-A. His strong, compact body allows him to produce strong bat speed making him a legitimate extra-base threat. His swing has an uppercut within it and helps him hit homers all over the outfields .. no fence will be too far.

The two corner outfield spots are by far the biggest question marks on this roster, and we'd expect the Braves to invite some non-roster veterans (Brian Jordan? Raul Mondesi?) to join them in spring training. They'll also be keeping an eye on the waiver wire for any veteran players being cut throughout the spring. The rest of the starting lineup contains familiar names, with Andruw in center, Chipper at third, Rafael Furcal at short, Marcus Giles at second, Adam LaRoche and Julio Franco platooning at first, and Johnny Estrada behind the plate.

Giles at second is all a plus. Adam LaRoche will become a .300 hitter this year and stay one for the next 10 years. He possibly could win the batting title and his defense is already top-notch. This is very important, the infielders can be saved many errors and the pitchers saved many extra hitters when the guy playing first is great. He will play many games because of his glove alone and he will not be replaced late in games. You can bet your new car his pitchers love him to play.

Forecast World Series

Arizona Diamondbacks

The first order of business was to refit an infield that won't look anything like what it did on Opening Day in 2004. Out are Richie “One Year” Sexson at first and Roberto Alomar at second; corner infielder Shea Hillenbrand has one foot out the door now as well. Arizona brought back the considerably older, gritty, gutty, former D-Back Craig Counsell to play second and signed below-average veteran, Royce Clayton to a one-year, $1.35 million deal to compete with Alex Cintron at short. When they realized they weren't going to re-sign Sexson, the power weak D-Backs moved quickly to snare slugging third baseman Troy Glaus from the Angels with a four-year, $45-million free agent deal that will move Chad Tracy over to first, assuming Hillenbrand departs. Tracy was in need of a position change anyway, being the worst fielding regular at third in the NL.

The primary difference between Sexson and Glaus, is Glaus has the history of being injured every season. Whereas, Sexson had his first serious injury last year. Sexson is younger than Glaus too. Paying Glaus more money than Sexson wanted was a questionable decision. Please remember I was nice here.

There appears to be a glut of mediocre talent at the middle infield positions. Clayton and Counsell are obviously short-term solutions. Youngsters Scott Hairston, Cintron, and Matt Kata will battle it out for at-bats at short and second behind the two veterans. The Counsell/Clayton signings comes at the expense of the young guns Cintron/Kata who one year ago were the keys to Arizona’s building plans. Now they are spare parts.

Hairston impressed with 13 homers and 29 RBI in 339 at-bats a year ago and was initially slated to move to right field before Green was acquired, but is considered a defensive liability in the infield. Cintron was a huge disappointment after a solid 2003 rookie season and will have to do something special to thrust himself back into the long-term plans of the club. He'll battle Kata and Clayton for a utility position and part-time duty at both middle infield spots. Promising second-year man Chad Tracy will be moved from third to first base after the Glaus signing, again assuming Hillenbrand moves on. He's known as a solid contact hitter and batted .285 in his rookie season a year ago. A .335 career hitter in four minor league seasons, Tracy has potential, but he'll likely never be your prototypical power-hitting corner infielder. That means he won't have much fantasy value at first base, unless you have enjoyed going to battle with Mark Grace or John Olerud in the past.

Luis Terrero will start in center and if he does get to first base he will steal second about one-third of the time. It’s a math formula see, for every 100 times he reaches first he will steal 33 bases.. so, 150 hits and 75 walks will math out to about 68-70 stolen bases.

The Diamondbacks, the worst team in baseball a year ago, responded to the worst season in franchise history by trading the franchise's greatest player, Randy Johnson. Having lived in Seattle and watched his career and personality change while poisoning everything and everybody that came near him, I knew what Arizona was living thru. Granted he is not a beautiful-looking man, but when he is being nasty he is both scary and ugly beyond a second shadow.

The Diamondbacks had to have a sour taste in their mouth regarding off-season acquisitions based on their terrible luck in 2004. The two main studs in the Curt Schilling deal, Casey Fossum and Brandon Lyon, were either injured or completely ineffective all season, while the big slugger they added, Sexson, somehow managed to parlay a season in which he lost all but 23 games to a shoulder injury into a $50 million contract with the Mariners. Acquiring Fossum and Lyon takes some serious thought on its own, neither has shown any sign yet where they are best suited to not being bashed. They can be either in the bullpen, as very expensive guys in a bullpen, or both can attempt to become 5-inning starters. Those factors conspired with the late season trade of Finley to leave several gaping holes in the D-Backs' lineup.

The Diamondbacks' 2004 season was messed-up by injury and disappointment right from the very beginning, and it ended with the team's three real hitters (Luis Gonzalez, Richie Sexson, and Steve Finley), either injured or traded away.

As extensive as those moves were, they pale in comparison to the wheeling and dealing that has completely revamped the pitching staff and added a huge bat to the outfield. The Diamondbacks landed outfielder Shawn Green, pitchers Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey, and $19 million in cash in interrelated deals with the Dodgers and Yankees. The rotation will feature free agent Russ Ortiz, removed away from the Braves for $33 million over four years, and former Rockie Shawn Estes, inked for around $2.5 million. Arizona needs Ortiz to become the same workhorse-guy that pitched for the Giants, but the fact Atlanta didn’t make even a ‘token’ offer to him should be seen as a clue that the 30-year old arm may finally be wearing down.

Vazquez is just below the “Super Star” label and his New York adventure helped his maturity and he now sees a clearer picture on how to pitch. Brandon Webb is of the belief ‘the Curse’ is gone from last year. This year draft him. Mike Gosling and Ramon Antonio Perez are in the 5th starting position battle. My list of draft-considered players has only two Arizona pitchers on it and none are in the bullpen. Follow my lead and don’t forget once Vazquez and Webb hand the ball over during a game the pen will lose 50% or more of those once potential wins.

The only remaining impact player from the teams that finished atop the N.L. West in three of four years between 1999 and 2002 is Gonzalez, so we'll start there. Memory walk with Gonzalez; recall his first 10 years in the majors, he was never above 15 homeruns. The Detroit Tigers picked him out of the useless outfielders-to-go store and re responded with 23 home runs. Seemingly, the next day he left for 5-years of becoming a major power source, including 57 home runs in 2001. At 37, Luis is on the downslide of his career, yet, if he comes back 80% healthy he should still hit 20+ homers and come close to the 90-RBI level. Gonzo went down with an injury late in the 2003 season that was diagnosed as a tear of the ligament in his right (throwing) elbow. He opted with the surgery in order to prepare himself for 2005. Gonzo started throwing in December and is hoping to be ready for the start of the season, but there are no assurances that this will be the case.

A healthy Gonzalez will have plenty of protection in the lineup with Glaus and Green batting near him. Glaus has two seasons of 40+ homers and has well-known power – 18 homers in 58 games a year ago. Glaus has played a grand total of 149 games combined in the last two years, sitting out most of last year after undergoing surgery to repair his throwing arm and shoulder. He returned as Glaus, hitting seven homers in the Angels' September pennant race and adding two more in three losses to the Red Sox in the postseason. Owners who take a chance on Glaus will be drafting another 3B, yet hoping Troy can make it through the year. Glaus had always been a very good fielder at third, but it is ‘back-breaking’ work for a baseball position. He has a bad back. I can see a few injuries happening here, can you?

Green has seen his batting steadily drop, from a career-high .309 in 1999, to a lowly .266 a year ago. He has slumped to an average of 24 homers and 85 RBI in his last two campaigns as well. And his days of stealing more than 20 bags appear to be well behind him, there is no reason to believe he can't return to the 100 RBIs of the not-so-distant past. Green is the right fielder once more, in his interesting career, and that means nothing negative will occur while he mans that position. In the light-air Green could return to 40-homer quality. Or not.

Carlos Quentin is a six-foot-two inch, swift, athletic as hell, outfielder. He will draw plenty of walks and tons of ‘hit-by-pitch’ because he crowds the plate making for a high OBP and more runs scored than most. His arm rates among the best in the game right now and he could earn a starting spot with a solid spring.

There are even more concerns regarding the rotation. Vazquez was one of the most dominating pitchers in all of baseball between 2001 and the first half of 2004. He had not pitched less than 223 innings, struck out less than 179 batters, or registered an ERA above 3.91 in three years with the Expos before he melted down under the glow of a pennant race and pressure-packed postseason in New York a year ago. Vazquez was 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and made the A.L. All-Star team in the first half of the year. If he can return to his previous National League form, Vazquez is a bona fide ace at the top of the D-Backs rotation. Vazquez will be followed by Ortiz and his trouble with his control, but who has a solid career ERA of 4.00 and has averaged 16.5 wins in the last six years, including a 21-win season just two-years ago. Webb holds down the third spot in the rotation after a rocky sophomore season in which he lost 16 games despite sporting an ERA of 3.59. That was up from his rookie year, when he had an ERA of 2.84 with 10 wins and 172 strikeouts in 180 innings. If he gets even one run more than the 4.24 runs of support the D-Backs gave him a year ago, he could easily reach the 12-15 win plateau. Estes, who will be a solid number four after a 15-win season with the Rockies a year ago and then one from a group that includes Halsey and Fossum, will likely round out the rotation.

A most interesting battle will be for the closer's role. Fireballer Jose Valverde saved 18 games at the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2004. Valverde then went on the DL in July. He was eventually shut down for the season after undergoing rotator cuff surgery. After Valverde went down, little-known right-handed rookie Greg Aquino took over and proceeded to close out 16 games in 19 chances. If Valverde stays, there is likely to be an open competition for the job in spring training. The fly in the ointment could be Brian Bruney, who has been groomed as a closer during his entire minor league career. He was up and down between Triple-A, the majors and the DL during 2004, but has put up very impressive numbers in the minor leagues and could be the solution for the Diamondbacks over the long term, if not in 2005.

Question marks remain in the Diamondbacks batting order, including finding a leadoff hitter to bat in front of the power (Gonzalez, Glaus, Green), but if all three can stay healthy and meet expectations, this lineup will provide run support, which is something the pitching staff sorely lacked one year ago. This team just may be the slowest team in the Major Leagues.

Forecast Last in the NL West

MadAlan

Opinions are welcome.

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