The ViewPoint
What would it Take? - Dodgers & Padres
April 6, 2004
Written by MadAlan

(Read archived articles here)

Lets strip the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres to see what it would take for them to win their division. Why do this? Just read on.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Division

San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, Arizona

The first thing I saw when I read the roster was - any team that starts Robin Ventura on Opening Day as the first baseman, is not World Series bound. It came to me; he was an excellent fielder at third, which requires more skills than first base and as he aged he showed the power was still in him. He is a sure thing for double-digits in homers; it was only 2002 when he hit 27 homers and drove-in 93 R.B.I.s. If things went good and it looked like the Dodgers were play-off material, be sure they will get another younger guy. It did point out to me to look closer at this team. This division is up for grabs and no team looks too good. The Dodgers play baseball in a beautiful, spacious, pitchers heaven for a ballpark. It allows them to use Kazuhisa Ishii as the number 4 in the starting rotation. His lifetime record is 23-15 in his two seasons and in both those seasons he struck out as many batters as innings pitched. The pitchers would revolt and the team E.R.A. would go up if Cesar Izturis were to take his glove and depart. The Dodgers will be happy if he can duplicate last season with the bat.

Los Angeles Pitching
Hideo Nomo doesn’t miss his turn and never gives up more hits than innings pitched. A winning Dodger season requires at least 18 wins from him and he is capable.

Odalis Perez weighs just 150 pounds. In his two seasons as a Dodger he has won 27 games and proven he can go 200 innings. He can win 15-18 games this year.

Jeff Weaver before he joined the Yankees was a proven winner, solid number one for a soft team. So he couldn’t deal with the Bronx, others have had the same problem and gone on with their lives. He will too. This man will become numero-uno of the staff and good for 17-20 wins and 200 innings.

Kazuhisa Ishii will win many games pitching at number four in a rotation. He should rarely face a number one or two so he should out-pitch many of his adversaries.

Tom Martin pitched in 80 games last season, his hits per nine-innings was a low 6.4. His ratio was 1.18. If you know him I am impressed.

Paul Shuey has been as solid as a rock ever since 1998. His seasons are always good. He was just injured and will be out 5-6 weeks.

Guillermo Mota is the “Ace” of the bullpen. Granted last season was a first for him, but if you saw him pitch it was very apparent he is a future star. Mota pitched over 100 innings in relief, averaging 2 walks per nine innings and a 0.99 Ratio.

Eric Gagne is the best closer in all Baseball.

Los Angeles Hitting
Hitting is the weakest aspect of this team is what critics say, they said the same thing about the Seattle Mariner’s when Lou Pineilla arrived in Seattle. He re-invented “little-ball” and used the good pitching to keep the other guy from scoring runs. In this case the park they play in helps a good staff and line-drive hitters become heroes. This team is now a bunch of contact hitters.

Shawn Green is told last season was a bad year. In this bad year he hit .280, 19 home runs, 85 R.B.I.s, OBP .355. In his previous two seasons he bashed 40+ homers in both.

Dave Roberts when healthy can be one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters.

Juan Encarnacion will steal 20-25 bases, drive in 90 runners, score 95 runs and hit around .275 this year if he can reach 500 ABs.

Adrian Beltre is only 25 years old and has knocked out more than 20 homers the last two seasons - he should drive-in 90 R.B.I.s this season. The batting-average will rise as his fielding goes further south.

Jayson Werth is a large man built just for Dodger Stadium. Although he takes-up extra space he is a natural line drive, gap hitter and a smart base runner. His rookie year will be around 10 homers, 55 R.B.I.s, 75 runs and a .265 BA.

Paul Lo Duca has been the number two hitter in the batting order because he gets contact. Expect him to be moved down further in the batting order and expect many more homers.

R. Ventura is now strictly a power hitter and should drive 20 over the fences and knock-in about 85 Runs and he will always look to take the extra base.

Cody Ross was just acquired and he is another line drive hitter built for Dodger wants. He was sent down but will be back soon because he is a natural hitter with a great deal of power.

Jason Grabowski is another line drive hitting solid fielding outfielder.

San Diego Padres

Division

San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, Arizona

The “Sleeper” team in the NL because they got the hitting they wanted. All of the players now on the roster are veterans of the DL at some point in their career. If – and that if is a huge “IF” they manage to stay healthy the problem goes to the pitching and not the hitting. The team batting average may come close to American league numbers! The pitching has as much quality as any team in baseball if you include the hype that preceded them. Like Peavy being the next Maddox. Wells, before he rejoins the Yankees will pick-up around 12-15 games. Peavy will win 20 games and make it look easy. He strikes out allot of batters as well. Lawrence eats innings and wins in double-digits too. Eaton is the key to the season. Honestly, the team hitting will keep them in games as long as the pitching allows the other team to stay behind.

Padre Pitching
David Wells is likely to be the winner of 12-15 games.

Brian Lawrence is the “bulldog” pitcher who won games when the team could not win many. With these hitters he could win 15-20 games.

J. Peavy will become an “All-Star” this season and will win 20 or more games.

Adam Eaton is worth your prayers. If he is healthy, count on 12-15 games.

Trever Hoffman was once an “All-Star” and surely was one of the top 5 closers in all baseball. He was real smart before and nobody could hit him. Now he will no-longer strikeout everyone and instead will pitch more effectively using some new off-speed pitches.

As you can see that is not enough pitching so expect 2 surprises here.

Padre Hitting
Brian Giles is one season removed from no less than 35 home runs and averaged 37 home runs for 4 consecutive seasons. The past 2 seasons he hit in the .290s. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. A real big gun.

J. Payton is a lifetime .291 hitter that spent 2 seasons in Colorado. Who is Payton? He is a matured, sweet swinging, confident, hard .290 hitter, which means 25 homers and 90 R.B.I.s.

R. Klesko will not bash 35 homeruns this year; he has never actually hit 35 home runs. He is a known power supply for leftfield or first base. We should see about 20 homers and 70 runners knocked in.

Phil Nevin is the purest riddle known to baseball. Expect nothing and see what we get. He could hit a dozen homeruns or he can slug 45, he can send 45 base runners across the plate or 125.

M. Loretta has evolved into a.300 hitter and improves each year. He made himself a better player and expects it to continue. Walks as much as he strikes out and is the guy the big fella’s knock in.

S. Burroughs has shown to be a .290 hitter and the team sees him at about .320. He hit only 7 home runs and I expect to see about 15.

R. Hernandez became a hitting catcher last year with power to match. He was important enough to the Padres to trade Kotsay for him.

Jeff Cirillo is injured again. He is out about 5 weeks. When he is back so will be his batting stroke. He is a lifetime .299 hitter that never hit less than .313 but once in the NL. He is back in the NL.

Buchanan is just now beginning his career as a power-hitting back-up player.

T. Long is a just better then average outfielder with double-digit power each season.

Oh, I know this is a .500 team at best. In a game as baseball the “what-iff” thing occurs every season now for more then 100 hundred years of history. You see if Giles and Nevin stay healthy for 550 ABs each this team will move above the .500 team it is now in a soft division.

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