Viewpoint - Fantasy Pitching
March 13, 2004
Written by MadAlan

(Read archived articles here)

Count the Pitching Rotation

If you see where your ace is going to face the other teams number 4, or better, their number 5-starter it should work out in your favor more often than not. Think. If your pitcher is going to win 20 games and lose 10 or so - play off the 10 not the 20. This means when he has lost 8-10 times don’t expect to see many more losses now for a while. Buehrle of the White Sox is a great example of this from last season. Dontrelle Willis worked this to his advantage for owners last year. He was hot “forever” yet he began as a number 5 starter and eventually up to an ace or number 2. Yet he was almost always facing the other teams number 4-5 starting pitcher all season long. Ask him if this helped him earn the record he put up. You can play this out to your advantage and be well ahead of where you would have been otherwise every week.

A number 3 on a team that will win 95 games or more should get 15-17 wins. That math’s-out to a team’s number 4 winning 12-14 games. Think Yankees or Mariner’s. Especially perfect for this example was the Seattle pitching staff of 2003. This is an important math equation because it also works in reverse. A team that will win about 60 games during the season that already has a pitcher in double-digits in wins by the All Star Game – he will not likely win many more games for the rest of the year.

Cherry-Picking Starting Pitching

Cherry-pick the free-agent list or “available pitchers” that will go against weak teams and will be pitching tomorrow. This is especially effective in Yahoo Leagues. You look each day to see who is facing which team. Pick out 1-2 that you may be able to rotate onto your roster and get an extra win or two daily if you are good. By “cherry-picking” the pitching this way you should be able to pick up 20 or more extra wins during the season. This is especially true for East-Coast players because they get the early 3-hours from the West Coast to check the pitching for tomorrow.

I Don’t Believe in Luck.

I remember when men would get beat in handball playing my father and it was always “they had a bad day, he could never beat me on another day.” This was where he was a humble man.. asking if they wanted to play another game “right now?” The answer? “No.” “I know you have bad knees and I don’t want to hurt you!” Everyone had a bad day when they faced him. Pro football players tried to beat him with little success as well. He never worked-up a sweat. He was a local champion in Michigan who blew out both his knees in the nationals in the late 50s. He continued to play and win. He changed his game to pinpoint accuracy, every shot was a kill shot and he moved the opponent everywhere so he could just make returns. An awesome thing to see.

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See you soon,

madalan

These thoughts are not set in anything but soft-cement.