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2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview: First Basemen
Written by TG Fantasy Baseball Staff
February 3, 2010

Feature Article

Arizona Diamondbacks

Lyle Overbay (Projected Value: $5)
Overbay (33) ended last year with a .265 average, 16 home runs, and 64 RBI. He does not face every opposing southpaw, though he did bat .282 against righties. You can draft him for his average potential.

Baltimore Orioles

Mark Reynolds (Projected Value: $22)
Reynolds batted .260 with 44 home runs, 102 RBI, and 24 stolen bases for Arizona last year. You can expect a lot of home runs from him again this year, but since he strikes out so much (223 Ks in '09), expect to see his average and power stats slide a bit in 2010.

Chris Davis (Projected Value: $4)
Davis started 2009 with so much promise, which he still has, but the road has been rocky. He hit 15 home runs by July 6th, but he was batting only .202 and had struck out 114 times in 258 at-bats. After a stint in the minors, he returned to hit .308 with six home runs to raise his season totals to .238-21-59. He represents a great power threat, and he stays in the lineup because he plays exceptional defense. However, he must put the ball in play more often - at least at a .240 clip.

Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez (Projected Value: $22)
Imagine being able to hit 40 HR and calling Petco your home field? Adrian Gonzalez can. Gonzalez (27) batted .277 with 40 home runs and 99 RBI last year. He has averaged 35 homers and 106 RBI over the last three seasons. If he gets traded to a city where the dimensions allow humans to hit HR, he could hit 50 easily.

Chicago Cubs

Micah Hoffpauir (Projected Value: $0)
Hoffpauir has some pop – 10 home runs in 234 at-bats – but he needs more at-bats in a lineup that is not likely to need him frequently.

Jeff Baker (Projected Value: $0)
Baker has found a home with the Cubs – probably at second base. Once his sprained left hand was healthy, he batted .305 with an .810 OPS over 69 games for Chicago. He finished the year with a .288 average, four homers, 24 RBI, and 27 runs in 226 at-bats between the Rockies and Cubs.

Chicago White Sox

Adam Dunn (Projected Value: $22)
Dunn hit "only" 38 HR last year, ending his streak of five consecutive seasons with 40-plus home runs. Expect him to retain his skill set, which includes the 40 HR, driving in 100+ runs, and he might bat .260. He has solid fantasy value.

Paul Konerko (Projected Value: $12)
Konerko (34) rebounded from a poor 2008 to hit .277 with 28 homers, and 88 RBI in 2009. A streaky hitter, he batted only .243, but with 12 HR after the ASG. Expect him to overachieve one more time as he enters a contract year.

Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto (Projected Value: $16)
Votto (26) battled a bout of dizziness and personal issues before the ASG, but still ended 2009 with a .322 average, 25 home runs, 84 RBI, and four steals. He seems to have overcome his mental health issues – we’ll know more later. You can bid for him as he enters his peak years with reasonable confidence.

Cleveland Indians

Matt LaPorta (Projected Value: $7)
LaPorta is recovering from surgeries on his left hip and left big toe. The rebuilding Indians expect the 25-year-old slugger to become an intimidating presence in the middle of the batting order this spring. He batted .254 with seven home runs and 21 RBI over 181 at-bats last year for Cleveland. Consider him a sleeper for a break-through as a late-round pick on Draft Day.

Casey Kotchman (Projected Value: $0)
Kotchman hit .268/.339/.382 between Atlanta and Boston in 2009. If he moves to a small- or mid-market team, like Seattle, he will get regular at-bats. If he has to stay in Boston, he will blend with the pine bench. He has potential fantasy value in one category only: batting average.

Colorado Rockies

Michael Cuddyer (Projected Value: $16)
Cuddyer (31) had a career year in '09 with 32 HR (10 HR after August) and 94 RBI. He probably cannot exceed last year's output, but if he stay's healthy he can hit 25 HR - and he qualifies at first base and in the outfield.

Todd Helton (Projected Value: $13)
Helton (36) remains a reliable second-level first baseman, albeit one with a health and age risk. He rebounded after back surgery by batting .325 with 15 home runs and 86 RBI in 2009.

Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera (Projected Value: $33)
Cabrera (26) has produced great fantasy stats for six years. He ended 2009 by hitting .324 with 34 home runs, 103 RBI, six steals, and 96 runs scored – and finally by getting into a domestic dispute. As he enters his prime athletic achievement years, expect even more – on the diamond. He will go off the draft board in the first round.

Prince Fielder (Projected Value: $28)
Fielder (25) enjoyed a monster 2009 season. He set the Brewers' club record for RBI (141), swatted 46 HR, and batted .299. He has yet to enter his prime production years. We are talking superstar.

Houston Astros

Carlos Lee (Projected Value: $26)
Lee (33) came back from a 2008 injury to have another solid season at the plate. He has had 100 or more RBI five years in a row (99 or more – seven years in a row). The speed might be disappearing though he continues to produce at an enviable pace. Few outfielders can match his consistent level of performance.

Los Angeles Angels

Albert Pujols (Projected Value: $36)
MVP Albert Pujols (30) batted .327 with an ML-leading 47 home runs, 135 RBI, 124 runs, and an NL-best .443 on-base percentage. He also tied a personal best with 16 stolen bases. BTW, he plays great defense. You cannot ask for more.

Kendrys Morales (Projected Value: $20)
Morales (27) enjoyed an unexpected breakthrough season in 2009, hitting .306 with 34 home runs and 108 RBI. He provided Mark Teixeira-like stats at the fraction of the cost that New York had to pay Tex. Morales even got better as the season progressed (he hit 21 HR after the ASG). What more can you ask for?

Jorge Cantu (Projected Value: $13)
Cantu (28) hit .289 with 16 home runs and 100 RBI for the Marlins in 2009. He had hit 29 HR in 2008. His contact rate is improving - but his home run production is falling.

Russell Branyan (Projected Value: $1)
Branyan (34) finished 2009 with a .251 average, 31 home runs, and 76 RBI. He hit .193 after the ASG, mostly because of a herniated disc problem that prematurely ended his season. He had not played in a 100-plus games since 2002. He expects to be ready for Spring Training. His power makes him worth a flier late on Draft Day.

Los Angeles Dodgers

James Loney (Projected Value: $13)
Loney (25) batted .281 average 13 home runs and 90 RBI - nice numbers - for a fourth outfielder. He needs to hit more home runs to have fantasy value. He still has youth on his side, so, we'll see.

Juan L Rivera (Projected Value: $11)
Rivera (31) regained the form that made him a fantasy asset in 2006. He can duplicate his stats from ‘09, if he stays healthy. Also, not often do players reach their early thirties, and then put up career numbers that they can maintain.

Miami Marlins

Gaby Sanchez (Projected Value: $0)
Sanchez (26) has not developed enough power to make him a first-base option for the Marlins – yet. They might give him another chance to succeed, but time is running out.

Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau (Projected Value: $21)
Morneau (28) hit .274 with 30 homers and 100 RBI, and then missed the last three weeks of last season with a stress fracture in his lower back. (It should not affect his health next spring.) He typically starts the season strong, but fades after the ASG. Last year, he posted a .201 average with a .402 slugging percentage in the second half. All-in-all, however, he hits like an elite power hitter who can give you a .300 average, 30 homers, and 120 RBI. He might even hit 40 HR this year.

New York Mets

Daniel Murphy (Projected Value: $3)
Murphy (25) qualifies as both first baseman and outfielder. He hit .266 with 12 home runs and 63 RBI in fulltime duty last year. Players at either of his positions have to hit for power or steal lots of bases. He has yet to do either. He can hit .300 – the power stroke may come yet.

New York Yankees

Mark Teixeira (Projected Value: $30)
Teixeira (29) had his best season in 2009 with the Yankees. The MVP candidate hit .292, with 39 HR and 122 RBI. He probably will not hit 50 home runs, but you can reasonably expect a .300-30-100-100 line from him.

None

Derrek Lee (Projected Value: $23)
Lee (34) enjoyed a resurgence in 2009 - batting .306 with 35 homers and 111 RBI. You cannot expect him to reproduce those stats in 2010, but .300/25/90 does not seem unreasonable.

Mike Lowell (Projected Value: $15)
Lowell had thumb surgery right after Christmas and his rehab should be complete by Spring Training - when the Red Sox will again attempt to unload him. What has he done to deserve this? The 35-year-old corner infielder and 2007 WS MVP hit .290/.337/.474 last season to go along with 17 home runs and 75 RBI.

Xavier Nady (Projected Value: $4)
Nady (31) had Tommy John surgery on his elbow last season and expects to make a comeback in the outfield in 2010. If he comes back healthy, he can hit 20-25 HR and an average just short of .300. You still do have to consider him as an injury risk.

Conor Jackson (Projected Value: $2)
Jackson (28) hit only .182 with one home run and 14 RBI over 99 at-bats in 2009. His season ended in May because of illness. The Diamondbacks expect him to be ready for Spring Training, but they also expect prospect Brandon Allen to get the bulk of playing time at first base. Jackson will likely have to look for playing time in the Arizona outfield. Consider him a sleeper breakout candidate.

Ross Gload (Projected Value: $1)
Gload (34) hit .261 with six home runs and 30 RBI in part-time duty for the Marlins in 2009; he will now provide the Phils with some flexibility around the diamond in 2010.

Troy Glaus (Projected Value: $0)
Glaus (33) signed with Atlanta to be the first baseman in 2010. He played in only 14 games in 2009 because of shoulder and back issues. He did hit .270/.372/.483 with 27 home runs and 99 RBI over 151 games in 2008. Glaus can make a rebound back to that level – if he stays healthy.

Carlos Delgado (Projected Value: $0)
Delgado batted .298 with four home runs and 23 RBI before going on the disabled list with a hip injury on May 16. He had surgery on his right hip a week later. During his last full season in '08, he hit .271 with 38 homers and 115 RBI. Don't expect him to return to those thrilling days of yesteryear - but he could hit 25 dingers if he stays healthy.

Andy Marte (Projected Value: $0)
Marte, a reclamation project at 26-years-old, had his best AAA season last year batting .327 with 18 HR – but he could not maintain the same production level when he reached Cleveland - again. He batted .232 with six HR in 155 AB for the Tribe. Andy - fish or cut bait.

Oakland Athletics

Daric Barton (Projected Value: $0)
Barton (24) has yet to develop as a power hitting first baseman. He should be able to hit for a decent average, but, is he, can he hit for power? You can take a flier on him and hope that his September line, .306-2-18, will carry over to 2010.

Brandon Allen (Projected Value: $0)
The Diamondbacks expect Allen (23) to man first base (sometime) this year. He hit four home runs in 32 games for them last year, but you have to consider him a work-in-progress. Will he even make the team out of Spring Training?

Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Howard (Projected Value: $28)
Howard came through with top-tier power again in 2009, batting .279 with 105 runs, 45 homers, 141 RBI, and eight stolen bases. With his long swing, Howard can go through lots of swing-and-miss episodes, but you can reasonably expect another 40+ HR from this slugger.

Ty Wigginton (Projected Value: $6)
Wigginton (32) ended his three-year run of hitting 20-plus home runs by hitting only 11 in 2009. Expect a return of power in 2010 - if he gets 400+ at-bats in Baltimore.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Garrett Jones (Projected Value: $15)
Surprise! Surprise!! Jones (28) finally got regular MLB ABs and enjoyed a great season in 2009, batting .293 with 21 home runs, 44 RBI, and 10 stolen bases over 314 at-bats. He has solidified himself as starter, whether at first base or in the outfield. Shazam!

San Francisco Giants

Aubrey Huff (Projected Value: $13)
Huff (33) joins the Giants to play first base, although he has played third base (2008 with the Orioles) and the outfield (2006 with the Astros). He split last year in the AL between the Orioles and Tigers and batted .241 with 15 home runs. The Giants want him to revisit his stats from 2008 when he hit .304 with 32 homers and 108 RBI.

Seattle Mariners

Mike Carp (Projected Value: $0)
Carp has power and average potential, and he won't take a bad pitch, which makes him a sleeper worth watching in 2010.

St. Louis Cardinals

Lance Berkman (Projected Value: $19)
Berkman (34) still gives strong fantasy numbers, as shown by his .274 batting average with 25 home runs and 80 RBI in 2009. However, the 80 RBI represented his lowest tally since his rookie year (2000). Expect a lot, but not as much as you used to. Injuries (wrist, calf) and age became a factor last year.

Tampa Bay Rays

Carlos Pena (Projected Value: $18)
Pena (32) lost almost a month’s worth of home runs after he broke two fingers at the beginning of September. For the year, he batted .227 with 39 homers and 100 RBI. That low average kept Pena from being categorized as an elite first basemen. He expects to return to 100% health in 2010, which means that you can look forward to seeing him hit 30-40 homers and drive in 100-plus runs.

Texas Rangers

Michael Young (Projected Value: $24)
Even though he was sidelined in September with a hamstring injury, Young (33) finished 2009 with a .322 average, 22 home runs, and 68 RBI. Consider him a quality hitter and a solid starting option at third base – as long as he is healthy.

Brad Hawpe (Projected Value: $19)
Hawpe (30) played like an All-Star during the first half of 2009, and then faded. He batted only .194 in September. Yet his overall numbers match up with his numbers from the previous three years. If you get him, you will be paying for the same thing again (.285-20-85).

Mike Napoli (Projected Value: $13)
Napoli hit .272 with 20 home runs and 56 RBI over 382 at-bats. He has incredible light-tower power, and if he gets more time as DH and less at catcher, his offensive numbers will get another boost up.

Toronto Blue Jays

Mike Jacobs (Projected Value: $7)
Jacobs is coming off a down year in the AL with the Royals, and looks to bounce back - most likely to happen with a return to the NL. He hit a career-best 32 home runs with the Marlins in 2008.

Adam Lind (Projected Value: $6)
Lind had one of the biggest breakthrough performances of 2009. He delivered a great average and top-shelf power numbers. His emergence as a 100-RBI thumper will probably continue. Can you imagine how good his owners in keeper leagues from previous years feel? (Not bad!)

Edwin Encarnacion (Projected Value: $5)
Encarnacion (27) hit .225 with 13 HR and 39 RBI in 85 games between Cincinnati and Toronto in 2009. (He took a step back in his development after hitting 26 home runs in 2008.) When will he truly bust out? He hasn’t yet, and you will be taking a risk if you draft him.

Washington Nationals

Adam LaRoche (Projected Value: $14)
LaRoche (30) proved that he should be starting at 1B somewhere by hitting .325-12-40 in only 212 at-bats with the Braves after being traded to them by the Red Sox. He ended up with 25 HR and 83 RBI for the year - his expectations, along with a .275 AVG, for 2010.

Michael Aubrey (Projected Value: $0)
Aubrey (28) hit .289 with four homers, 14 RBI, and a .500 slugging percentage over 90 at-bats with Baltimore in 2009. Despite that, the Orioles look to find someone else for the job at first base - Aubrey might back up whoever gets the job.